Analysis: Geithner's planned departure puts Obama in tough spot

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's plans to leave near the end of January put the White House in a tricky spot, depriving the Obama administration of its longest-serving economic adviser for its next fiscal showdown with Congress.
Geithner, who spent his years as Treasury secretary battling the financial crisis and then fighting with Republican lawmakers in 2011 over raising the U.S. debt ceiling, has wanted to leave government service for some time.
The Treasury Department said Geithner would stick to his previously announced schedule to stay until sometime around the January 21 inauguration. Bloomberg News reported that Geithner would leave at the end of January.
Obama chose Geithner to lead the just-ended negotiations with Congress to avert the December 31 fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax hikes that threatened to push the economy back into recession.
But the deal, which preserved most of the Bush-era tax breaks for Americans, sets up a series of crucial fiscal deadlines by delaying automatic spending cuts until March 1 and not increasing the government's borrowing limit.
That puts Obama in the tough spot of nominating another Treasury secretary and asking the Senate to approve his choice when lawmakers are in the middle of another budget battle.
"The confirmation process will be nasty regardless as it will be a referendum on Obama's economic and deficit plans," said Chris Krueger, a policy analyst with Guggenheim Partners.
Geithner has already resorted to using emergency measures in order to give the Treasury Department the ability to pay government bills and avoid a damaging debt default.
The country hit its $16.4 trillion debt limit December 31, and the Treasury is on track to run out of funds in February. If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling on time, the United States would default on its debt payments and roil markets worldwide.
"From a confidence standpoint, you don't want to change the man at the top during a crisis," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co in New York, adding that even Geithner could still provide guidance as an adviser after he leaves.
Lawmakers are at war with each other over the size of government, and Republicans plan to use the debt ceiling increase to extract massive spending cuts from Democrats. And Geithner had managed to win the respect of Republican lawmakers, especially in the volatile House of Representatives.
FILLING THE VOID
Geithner was instrumental in helping Republican President George W. Bush and then Obama fight the 2007-09 credit crisis, first as the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank and then as Obama's only Treasury secretary.
He survived calls for his resignation over how the Treasury handled the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program bank bailout fund. He fought with Republican lawmakers over raising the debt ceiling in 2011.
As he tried to resign, Obama asked him to stay through the November presidential election.
Obama's chief of staff, Jack Lew, is widely expected to be chosen to replace Geithner. But a number of key Republicans do not like working with Lew, the former budget director, which could potentially exacerbate the raw relations between the administration and Congress.
"Geithner's leadership and expertise would undoubtedly be a tremendous asset to the president and the country as we confront this next challenge," said Max Baucus, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, which is in charge of vetting the next treasury secretary.
It is not clear who Obama would choose to lead negotiations for the next set of fiscal deadlines. Vice President Joe Biden, who helped broker the fiscal cliff deal, or Rob Nabors, the White House's main liaison to Congress, could fit that bill.
The Treasury Department said it did not plan to make any further announcements about the timing of Geithner's departure until after his successor is named.
"That is a lot of experience and steadiness that you would be getting rid of," said Steve Bell, a former Senate budget committee staff director who is now an economic policy director with the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Read More..

US job market resilient despite budget fight

The U.S. job market showed resilience in three reports Thursday, suggesting it may be able to withstand a federal budget battle that threatens more economic uncertainty in coming months.
A survey showed private hiring increased last month, while layoffs declined and applications for unemployment benefits stayed near a four-year low. The data led some economists to raise their forecasts for December job growth one day before the government releases its closely watched employment report.
"The job market held firm in December despite the intensifying fiscal cliff negotiations," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Businesses even became somewhat more aggressive in their hiring at year end."
The most encouraging sign came from payroll provider ADP. Its monthly employment survey showed businesses added 215,000 jobs last month, the most in 10 months and much higher than November's total of 148,000.
Economists tend to approach the ADP survey with some skepticism because it has diverged sharply at times from the government's job figures. The Labor Department releases its employment report Friday.
But some economists were also hopeful after seeing businesses were less inclined to cut jobs last month.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said that the number of announced job cuts fell 43 percent in December from November, and overall planned layoffs in 2012 fell to the lowest level since 1997.
The decline in layoffs coincided with a drop last month in the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits. The four-week average was little changed at 360,000 last week. That's only slightly above the previous week's 359,750, which was the lowest since March 2008.
Most economists expect the Labor Department report will show employers added about 150,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate stayed at 7.7 percent.
Some economists saw potential for stronger gains after seeing Thursday's data.
Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, raised his forecast for job growth in December to 190,000 jobs, up from 150,000.
Credit Suisse increased its forecast to 185,000, up from 165,000.
"Given that we have restraints, the labor market data do appear to be improving," said Dana Saporta, an economist at Credit Suisse.
Still, many economists remained cautious about where the job market is headed. While Congress and the White House reached a deal this week that removed the threat of tax increases to most Americans, they postponed the more difficult decisions on cutting spending. And the government must also increase its $16.4 trillion borrowing limit by late February or risk defaulting on its debt.
Congressional Republicans are pressing for deep spending cuts in return for any increase in the borrowing limit. President Barack Obama has repeatedly said wants the issues kept separate.
The economy has added about 150,000 jobs a month, on average, over the past two years. That's too few to rapidly lower the unemployment rate.
Hiring probably won't rise above the current 150,000 per month trend until after the borrowing limit is resolved, economists say.
A similar fight over raising the borrowing limit in 2011 was only settled at the last hour and nearly brought the nation to the brink of default.
"That's not an environment where you're likely to be taking risks," such as boosting hiring, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.
Even with modest gains in hiring, the unemployment rate remains high. It fell to 7.7 percent in November from 7.9 percent in October. But that was mostly because many of the unemployed stopped looking for jobs. The government counts people as unemployed only if they are actively searching for work.
The number of people receiving jobless benefits fell to 5.4 million in the week ended Dec. 15, the latest data available. That's down about 70,000 from the previous week. The figure includes about 2.1 million people receiving emergency benefits paid for by the federal government. The White House and Congress agreed earlier this week to extend that program for another year.
There are signs the economy is improving. The once-battered housing market is recovering, which should lead to more construction jobs this year. Companies ordered more long-lasting manufactured goods in November, a sign they are investing more in equipment and software. And Americans spent more in November. Consumer spending drives nearly 70 percent of economic growth.

Read More..

US housing construction up 15 percent in September

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. builders started construction on single-family homes and apartments in September at the fastest rate since July 2008, a further indication that the housing recovery is strengthening.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that builders broke ground on homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000 in September. That's an increase of 15 percent from the August level.
Applications for building permits, a good sign of future construction, jumped nearly 12 percent to an annual rate of 894,000, also the highest since July 2008.

[Click here to see home loan rates in your area.]
The strength in September came from both single-family construction, which rose 11 percent, and apartments, which increased 25.1 percent.
Construction activity is now 82.5 percent higher than the recession low hit in April 2009. Activity is still well below the roughly 1.5 million rate that is consistent with healthier markets.
Still, the surge in construction suggests builders believe the housing rebound is durable.
Builder confidence reached at a six-year high this month, according to a survey by the National Association of Home Builders. The group's index of builder sentiment rose to a reading of 41. While that's still below the level of 50 that signals a healthy market, it has steadily climbed over the past year from a reading of 17.
Sales of new and previously owned homes have been slowly improving this year, and home prices are starting to show consistent gains.
Record-low mortgage have encouraged more people to buy. And the Federal Reserve's aggressive policies could push long-term interest rates even lower, making home-buying affordable for the foreseeable future.
Housing is expected to keep improving next year. But many economists say economic growth will stay muted until companies step up hiring and consumers start spending more.
Though new homes represent less than 20 percent of the housing sales market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in tax revenue, according to data from the home builders group.

Read More..

First photos of BlackBerry 10 ‘N-Series’ QWERTY smartphone leak

As Research In Motion (RIMM) begins its attempt to mount a comeback for the ages in 2013, it will place its early hopes on two high-end smartphones. The first is the BlackBerry Z10, and we’ve already seen it in a number of leaks. The second is a QWERTY-equipped touchscreen phone similar to the current BlackBerry Bold 9900, and it has just been pictured for the first time in photos published by Chinese blog cnBeta.com. No additional information accompanied the photos, however earlier reports stated that the smartphone will include a 720 x 720-pixel display with a pixel density of 330 ppi. Another image of the BlackBerry 10-powered N-Series phone follows below.

Read More..

Fifth-gen iPad reportedly due in March along with Retina iPad mini

Rumors that a second-generation iPad mini with a Retina display is set to launch ahead of Apple’s typical annual schedule next year have been swirling, and now it appears Apple’s (AAPL) full-size iPad may be sticking to its new semiannual release schedule. According to a report from Japanese blog Makotakra that cites an anonymous “inside source,” Apple plans to launch a new thinner, lighter 9.7-inch iPad as soon as March 2013. The fourth iPad model was just released last month alongside the iPad mini, but March was also suggested in recent Retina iPad mini rumors. Makotakra states that the new iPad will adopt styling queues from the current iPad mini model, unifying the look of Apple’s larger tablet with the iPad mini and iPhone 5.

Read More..

Find room for God in fast-paced world, pope says on Christmas eve

 Pope Benedict, leading the world's Roman Catholics into Christmas, on Monday urged people to find room for God in their fast-paced lives filled with the latest technological gadgets.
The 85-year-old pope, marking the eighth Christmas season of his pontificate, celebrated a solemn Christmas Eve mass in St Peter's Basilica, during which he appealed for a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict and an end to the civil war in Syria.
At the mass for some 10,000 people in the basilica and broadcast to millions of others on television, the pope wove his homily around the theme of God's place in today's modern world.
"Do we have time and space for him? Do we not actually turn away God himself? We begin to do so when we have no time for him," said the pope, wearing gold and white vestments.
"The faster we can move, the more efficient our time-saving appliances become, the less time we have. And God? The question of God never seems urgent. Our time is already completely full," he said.
The leader of the world's some 1.2 billion Roman Catholics said societies had reached the point where many people's thinking processes did not leave any room even for the existence of God.
"Even if he seems to knock at the door of our thinking, he has to be explained away. If thinking is to be taken seriously, it must be structured in such a way that the 'God hypothesis' becomes superfluous," he said.
"There is no room for him. Not even in our feelings and desires is there any room for him. We want ourselves. We want what we can seize hold of, we want happiness that is within our reach, we want our plans and purposes to succeed. We are so 'full' of ourselves that there is no room left for God."
PEACE CANDLE
Bells inside and outside the basilica chimed when the pope said "Glory to God in the Highest," the words the gospels say the angels sang at the moment of Jesus' birth.
Earlier on Monday the pope appeared at the window of his apartments in the apostolic palace and lit a peace candle, as a larger-than-life nativity scene was unveiled in St Peter's Square below.
Reflecting on the gospel account of Jesus born in a stable because there was no room for Mary and Joseph in the inn, he said when people find no room for God in their lives, they will soon find no room for others.
"Let us ask the Lord that we may become vigilant for his presence, that we may hear how softly yet insistently he knocks at the door of our being and willing.
"Let us ask that we may make room for him within ourselves, that we may recognise him also in those through whom he speaks to us: children, the suffering, the abandoned, those who are excluded and the poor of this world," he said.
He asked for prayers for the people who "live and suffer" in the Holy Land today.
The pope called for peace among Israelis and Palestinians and for the people of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq and prayed that "Christians in those lands where our faith was born may be able to continue living there, that Christians and Muslims may build up their countries side-by-side in God's peace."
The Vatican is concerned about the exodus from the Middle East of Christians, many of whom leave because they fear for their safety. Christians now comprise five percent of the population of the region, down from 20 percent a century ago.
According to some estimates, the current population of 12 million Christians in the Middle East could halve by 2020 if security and birth rates continue to decline.
At noon (1100 GMT/6 AM ET) the pope will deliver his twice-yearly "Urbi et Orbi" (to the city and the world) blessing and message from the central balcony of St Peter's Basilica.

Read More..

Just got a new iPhone, iPad or Android device for Christmas? Gameloft cuts popular iOS and Android games to 99¢

Smartphones and tablets running Apple’s (AAPL) iOS platform and Google’s (GOOG) Android OS are big this year — so big that traditional toy makers are terrified they might soon be obsolete. If you’re one of the tens of thousands of people young and old who just unwrapped a brand new iPad, Android device, iPod touch or iPhone, Gameloft has made figuring out where to start fairly easy for you by putting dozens of mobile games on sale for just $0.99 each. Popular titles include “Asphalt 7: Heat,” “The Dark Knight Rises,” “The Amazing Spider-Man,” “Where’s Waldo Now?,” “Modern Combat 4: Zero Hour” and more. Dozens of other Gameloft games are free and you can browse through all the company’s titles via the source links below.

Read More..

Google filing error shocks investors, exposes process

SAN FRANCISCO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - R.R. Donnelley & Sons Co handles thousands of securities filings a year for corporate clients in a routine process that is invisible to most investors. On Thursday Google and its shareholders found out just what happens when that process goes wrong.
Google issued a statement blaming Donnelley, its filing agent, after the Internet search company's quarterly results were released by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission hours ahead of schedule.
Earnings were far less than analysts expected and Google shares immediately plunged as much as 10.5 percent, knocking $26 billion off its market capitalization - the equivalent, as it happens, of about 13 R.R. Donnelleys.
It was quickly obvious that a mistake had been made -- the second paragraph of the filing said "PENDING LARRY QUOTE" instead of an actual quote from Google CEO Larry Page -- but it was not clear why.
Within minutes, though, an unknown prankster set up a "PendingLarry" Twitter feed to hypothesize what the missing quote might be. Among the highlights: "Man, our privacy was WAY violated today."
Donnelley shares lost more than 5 percent after Google started pointing the finger, though they recovered later in the day. The company did not respond to a call for comment, but issued a statement to CNBC in which it said it was investigating the circumstances of the release.
Best known as a provider of printing services, Donnelley is also the top SEC filing agent in the country, handling more than 75,000 submissions this year as of mid-October, according to SECInfo.com.
Filing agents like Donnelley take paper documents and convert them for submission to the SEC in the appropriate format. The company also owns the filing portal EDGAR Online.
WHO GOOFED?
It is far from the first time a company's earnings have somehow gotten out early.
In late 2010 and early 2011, inadvertent releases - usually by a misplaced release on a website - plagued companies like Walt Disney Co (NYS:DIS) and Microsoft Corp (NSQ:MSFT).
The common thread in all of those cases is that investors who are not in the right place at the right time to see the news may suffer for it.
"Some who didn't get a chance to sell will try to, and others will be looking for bargains. I'm sure a lot of Google owners were caught off guard," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.
After the first question of "who goofed?" was sorted out Thursday afternoon, the second one being asked by investors was "can we sue?"
"Everyone is trying to figure out if there's any legal issue with respect to R.R. Donnelley. Google is halted, Donnelley is down big-time on the news since they're allegedly not supposed to have released the information," said Michael Matousek, senior trader at U.S. Global Investors in San Antonio.
But one plaintiffs lawyer who sues companies on behalf of investors said shareholders would not have a claim against either Google or R.R. Donnelley because the earnings disclosure was likely a mistake.
"There's no fraudulent intent here," said Reed Kathrein with Hagens Berman.
R.R. Donnelley may not be entirely off the hook with Google, however. The company could have a negligence claim to recover any additional costs it incurred in responding to the incident, Kathrein said.
Any potential damages against R.R. Donnelley could be limited, though, by the contract between the two companies.
Late Thursday, Google filed an amended press release with the missing quote and a confirmation that the figures in the original were accurate.
R.R. Donnelley shares were up 2 cents at $10.87 in late trading. Google was down 8.1 percent to $693.94 after trading resumed.

Read More..

Who Owns America’s Debt?

As the U.S. continues to rack up more than $1 trillion of new debt every year, Americans are beginning to worry about who we owe this money to and how much power our creditors have over us.
According to Barry P. Bosworth, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, our two biggest foreign creditors are Japan and China.
Although it may seem as though our debt to these countries renders us a puppet on strings, Bosworth says this fear is overblown. The U.S. market is very important to China's economy, so China would be loathe to do anything that might exacerbate tensions or disrupt trade between the two countries. And the same can be said for Japan. China owns $1.15 trillion of U.S. government debt -- more than any other country -- but U.S. taxpayers actually owe less money to China compared to recent years. China holds 10% of U.S. Treasuries, down from 12% two years ago.
Related: China's Slow Growth 'Marks An End of an Era' But No Hard Landing
And what about all the anti-China rhetoric that we hear about on the campaign trail?
Republican Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney has been promising the country that he will declare China a "currency manipulator" on the first day of his presidency--and then enact tariffs as necessary until he forces China to level the trading playing field. Is that something that Romney is actually likely to do if he gets elected?
No, says Bosworth.
Tough talk with respect to China has become standard rhetoric for any presidential challenger. If and when Romney becomes president, his position will likely mellow.
Bosworth also says that the problem with the U.S.-China trade relationship is not, as is commonly believed, that China doesn't play fair. China has actually addressed lots of its unfair practices over the past decade, Bosworth says, while the U.S. is still pursuing the same old self-destructive habits. Until we stop consuming so much and start producing more, Bosworth says, we're in no position to demand anything.

Read More..

Earnings from McDonald's, Microsoft sink stocks

Poor earnings reports from three companies in the Dow Jones industrial average — Microsoft, General Electric and McDonalds — sent indexes down sharply Friday, marking a sour end to an otherwise strong week in the stock market.
McDonald's led a broad drop in the Dow, falling 3 percent. The Dow was down 151 points at 13,397 shortly after noon.
"I'm concerned about corporate earnings, but I'm not alarmed yet," said Doug Cote, chief market strategist at ING Investment Management in New York.
Cote cautions that it's still early in reporting season, but what's worrying is that companies have reported an overall drop in earnings so far. "And once you get one quarter of negative earnings, it's a precursor," he said. "It's the cockroach theory: if you find one, there's probably many more."
The Standard & Poor's 500 sank 17 points to 1,440 and the Nasdaq composite dropped 52 points to 3,020. All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 fell, led by materials and technology stocks.
McDonald's profit sank as a strong dollar hurt international results, which account for two-thirds of its business. The fast-food giant's stock lost $3.51 to $89.35.
Microsoft's income fell 22 percent as PC sales took a dive and as troubles in Europe took their toll. Its stock lost 67 cents to $28.82.
General Electric, another economic bellwether, fell 3 percent. The company reported stronger profits early Friday but its revenue missed Wall Street's expectations. Orders for new equipment and services sank, mainly because wind turbine orders have fallen because a key U.S. federal subsidy for wind power expires at the end of the year.
GE's stock lost 60 cents to $22.21.
Analysts currently expect companies in the S&P 500 to post their worst earnings results since the third quarter of 2009, according to S&P Capital IQ. Banks and consumer discretionary companies are projected to report the best growth. Analysts expect companies dealing in metals and other materials to report the worst results, followed by energy companies.
But it's technology companies like IBM, Intel and Google whose weak results have grabbed the most attention so far.
Weak earnings from Google and a rise in claims for unemployment benefits helped pull the stock market lower Thursday. That snapped a four-day run of gains for the Dow. Google fell again Friday, giving up $14.14 to $680.86.
The Dow is still up 0.6 percent for the week. The S&P 500 up is up 0.8 percent.
In other Friday trading, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note slipped to 1.77 percent from 1.83 percent late Thursday.
Among other stocks making big moves, Chipotle Mexican Grill plunged 14 percent after the burrito chain forecast that revenue growth would slow sharply next year. The stock had been a favorite among investors thanks to super-fast growth in recent years. The stock fell $41.32 to $244.61.

Read More..